It is looking more and more likely that Turkey will mount a serious military incursion into Northern Iraq in order to fight the PKK (Kurdish Workers’s Party), which Turkey, the EU and the US have identified as a terrorist organization. Just a few weeks ago thousands of Turkish troops crossed the Iraqi border in pursuit of PKK militants. Northern Iraq is relativly peaceful and safe, has a well-functioning government, police force and military. A Turkish invasion could finally make all of Iraq into a hellish warzone. It could also turn the Iraq conflict into a regional war if Iran or Syria tried to come to the Kurds’ rescue. More importently it would destroy any hope of the country becoming a stable, liberal democracy anytime in the near future. Turkey is a strong ally of Israel, the US and EU. It is a member of NATO. It would be diplomatically impossible for Bush to force the Turks out of Iraq. Most of Europe would side with Turkey against the US, and America cannot afford to go to war with its strongest allies. With all hope for victory gone a Turkish invasion would force a precipitous US withdrawl (helped by a Democratic Congress) from Iraq. Iran, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia would then need to get involved in Iraq to protect their interests. Iran would try to ensure the Sunnis stay in power. Jordan and SA would intervene to prevent Iran from becoming a regional hegemon. Iraq would become the scene of a bloody, regional, sectarian war unlike anything that is going on now. It would be the culmination of the European’s failed divide-and-rule colonial stratagy. So far, however, Turkey has shown restraint. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and Turkey will not do anything too rash.
Liliane at Independence ‘05 has written a good post on the real effect recent violence in Lebanon. Since May 20th there have been 5 explosions in touristy commercial areas within 3 Christian cities, a Druze city and a Muslim city.
