Global Affairs

4 Muslim Brotherhood members were recently arrested in Egypt, 3 of them are cantidates for Egypt’s Parliament. This is just the most recent incident of Mubarak’s opression of this popular group. The Muslim Brotherhood claims to be non-violent, although members of the Muslim Brotherhood have certainly become terrorists (see:Hamas, Sadat). As far as islamists go, they are moderate. The Muslim Brotherhood seeks to estabish an islamic state, not a caliphate, and wou.d not impose Taliban-style edicts. They are outlawed principly because they are a threat to the current autocratic regime.

If the Muslim Brotherhood took power, however, Egypt would be in a much worse state then they are in today. As Obadiah writes over at Sampson’s Blinded, they would ruin the economy (or whats left f it) and likely try to emulate Iran. The result would be an Egypt that is very much a regional player. This is very different then the role Egypt has played in the region since they made peace with Israel. Egypt has acted as a respectable, stately broker and pursued a moderate, balenced foreign policy. Their main goal has been stability, not dominance. The Muslim Brotherhood wants to change thata.

It will be the 40th anniversery of the 6-day war soon. The BBC has some nice graphics that tell the story well. I think it is more importent, however, to focus on the here and now. Lebanon has recently seen an upsurge in violence. Two weeks ago fighting broke out in the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp in Northern Lebanon between the Lebanese army and Fatah al-Islam. Over 100 people have been killed. The Lebanese military is notoriously weak. Liliane at Independence ‘05 writes "It is really shocking and breath-taking, at least for me, to see our Lebanese army fighting. This is not a sight we are accustomed to."

Today leaders of the the Fatah al-Islam faction agreed to lay down their arms, but there it is questionable how much control they have over their members. Fatah al-Islam is seperate and more radical then Fatah of the PLO. Apparently their leader was on the verge of declaring Tripoli an independent ‘emirate’ that would be ruled by Islamic law.

The impact of this violence on the refugees living in the camps is obviously huge. According to Justice for Lebanon 25% of the refugees are seeking refuge in UNRWA schools and approximately 75% have sought refuge with other families in the nearby Badawi Palestinian Camp. This has caused a  humanitarian crisis in what was already one of the poorest parts of the world.

Hopefully this ceasefire will stand and a peaceful solution will be reached quickly. The larger problem will remain though. Lebanon is a weak state where groups like Fatah al-Islam and Hezbollah can conduct terrorist acts relativly safely. It is in the interests of Lebanon’s neighbors, save perhaps Syria, for it to get a strong central government.